Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 18.649853 22.551605 26.885103 32.029417 37.942867 44.500495 52.294261
2025-02-16 12.987041 18.060134 24.320076 32.496475 42.767649 55.110872 70.920237
2025-02-23 9.632834 15.010061 22.223254 32.355936 45.940227 63.221104 86.522004
2025-03-02 7.273195 12.570667 20.225538 31.674120 47.880100 69.473812 99.805800
2025-03-09 5.763172 10.951415 18.965126 31.622141 50.384241 76.363970 114.094022
2025-03-16 4.266745 8.976062 16.777720 29.805997 50.027928 79.102810 122.705306
2025-03-23 3.650997 8.338254 16.546059 30.855107 53.851216 87.852424 140.056624
2025-03-30 2.923144 7.312987 15.478361 30.380316 55.215574 93.008254 152.438931
2025-04-06 2.613364 7.032607 15.652080 31.946927 59.860729 103.261017 172.727596
2025-04-13 1.919640 5.755173 13.769781 29.698644 58.053144 103.462811 177.918148
2025-04-20 1.645875 5.350933 13.494739 30.272540 60.958092 111.124071 194.755247
2025-04-27 1.439603 5.054897 13.385699 31.123405 64.368593 119.730376 213.393647
2025-05-04 1.209071 4.664862 13.092555 31.746204 67.716137 128.897323 234.159161
2025-05-11 1.011739 4.306823 12.821365 32.412645 71.263252 138.721299 256.680348
2025-05-18 0.808065 3.845078 12.211384 32.286935 73.303252 146.085862 275.529963
2025-05-25 0.621603 3.348968 11.402537 31.607324 74.191937 151.468211 291.303189
2025-06-01 0.496992 3.009553 10.915479 31.555507 76.265029 158.993470 310.946966
2025-06-08 0.347068 2.470095 9.742830 29.742483 74.613581 159.716811 318.993360
2025-06-15 0.299912 2.357424 9.772140 30.789790 78.906123 171.454455 346.508641
2025-06-22 0.229239 2.076510 9.218507 30.315815 79.941703 177.194255 363.740939
2025-06-29 0.206947 2.044846 9.454908 31.879746 85.462888 191.603936 396.835466
2025-07-06 0.133987 1.633947 8.303710 29.635317 82.441989 189.582313 400.453871
2025-07-13 0.110704 1.529674 8.201710 30.208223 85.754002 199.928931 426.806821